Lord Fitz
Project Amargosa
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Posted - 2009.06.25 14:56:00 -
[1]
 Originally by: Akita T
As for the other issue... there have been more than just anecdotal complaints as to the unnatural streakiness of the EVE RNG (both in successes and failures, be it invention or the ECM system), but it always falls on deaf CCP ears, discounting it as a mere "it's bound to happen to somebody eventually" (regardless of the frequency of those reports, far above what you could possibly expect if the RNG was working properly), never investigating the matter any further.
CCP took great interest in this, and gathered evidence from the players, which under detailed analysis proved it was working just like any random number generator should. (go search the thread, there were no deaf ears on CCP's part, just our fellow players). A simple query will prove that it actually works out overall, and given the number of players interacting, 'streakiness' is quite simply not possible, the RNG will probably be used to calculate 300 turret hits before it gets back around to tracking the second invention job you put on just 5 seconds after the first. It simply can't streak any more than statistically it should (and YES IT SHOULD STREAK ! ).
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So far I've run 55 invention attempts, and of those 25 have succeeded, giving me a 45.45% success rate. Then again though, 55 is a fairly small sample size, so because statistics are the way they are, I think it will tend to decrease to where it is at the calculated level.
Yes, while each invention attempt is atomic (it has no idea whatsoever what your past invention successes or failures were, it doesn't need to, that would just make the formula more complicated than it needs to be for no reason at all).
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93.688% chance of at least 25 successes out of 100 tries with a 31.51% success chance
Now there's an interesting one, more than 6% of people will statistically be wondering why they're getting 6.5% less than average ;) Shows you just how small of a sample size 100 is. I'm thinking more like 1500 before you can complain, and even then it would have to be more than 1% out.
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